Wagering Tips and Kelly Criterion in Football Wagering 2008 Vs 2009 To be an effective punter in football wagering, you should intelligently guess 2 main points: the possibility of a win and the dimension of the risk. Online wagering tips and group information will help you to estimate the possibility of a win, but choosing the risk dimension is a more complicated job that requires each punter to decide inning accordance with his individual wagering strategy. Situs Judi Online
This article sums up a research study intended to optimize the use Kelly strategy, one of the most lucrative of all the current wagering strategies. The research is based upon a contrast in between statistics of wagering revenues of top European football organizations that played throughout 2008/09 and those having fun in 2009/10 periods.
Information and Techniques
The research was conducted based upon suit outcomes and average wagering chances from 60+ bookies drawn from the following European Football organizations: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki Katigoria, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier, Spanish Primera Department and Turkish Very Lig.
Each suit result gets its own worth specified by reproduction: chances x possibility of a win. When this worth is greater compared to one, it’s considered as a “worth wager”.
The possibility of home win/attract/away victories in this research is specified by the regularity of their look in a nationwide competition.
Inning accordance with Kelly’s strategy, the wager for each result is calculated as complies with: w * (p-(1-p)/(odds-1)) (w stands for the riches of the punter and p is the possibility of a win). For instance, if your riches is 1000$, p is 50% and the chances are 2.5, after that the more suitable wager amounts to 1000$*(0.5 – 0.5/(2.5-1))=166$
The punter’s profit is calculated by presuming he places a wager inning accordance with the Kelly’s strategy for those outcomes whose worth is the closest to the worth wager specified a priory.
An ideal worth wager is a wager leading to a maximal profit for a punter.
Inning accordance with the research, the ideal worth wager for football wagering is 1.37 (2009) compared with 1.39 (2008). The wagering profit of a punter that uses Kelly’s strategy with these ideal worth wagers amounts to 10% in 2008 and 14% in 2009. The outcomes show that when a punter uses Kelly’s strategy putting bank on the outcomes with an average worth wager of 1.38, the wagering revenues will be maximal. Top quality wagering tips can increase the revenues significantly but the ideal worth wagers need to be recalculated to adjust them to the precision of your wagering tips.